Vegas Update: Long Term NBA Futures Bets — Miami Heat 3-Peat??

If you’re anything like me (and hopefully you’re not), then you get a bit irked and bored this time of year from the lack of quality sports action. Yea the Olympics carry us through a few weeks here in February once every four years, and it’ll be nice to wake up at 7:30am this weekend to see the U.S. Men’s hockey team in action out in Sochi, but I need more to carry me through the day. The break in Flyers action and keeping tabs on how many points the Sixers get blown out by on a nightly basis (they’ve lost 8 in a row) just isn’t quite cutting it for me. All of the tips we’ve listed here have actually been written by a fellow fan, one of the guys (Jamie) which is a site dedicated to reviews and exclusive free bets for the UK’s best betting sites.

What’s the solution you ask? Well one way to combat this is by knocking down whiskey and staring at the snow piling up on top of your car and driveway. This tends to lose its luster after a couple hours and ten snowfalls in one season though. So the alternative, at least for me, is by examining some long term NBA futures proposition bets and attempt to spot some lines that I might to place some money on.

For me personally, the satisfying part about futures bets is that you’re being paid an extra premium in order to wait things out. Now not everyone has the patience to deal with a 3-month long bet and some don’t see the value in investing $200 now to make a few hundred bucks down the road, but trust me it’s a great feeling when the bet hits and pays itself out. After all, the odds for the Miami Heat to win the East or even the NBA Finals are going to pay out a lot better now than say in mid-May once they’ve manhandled two Eastern Conference bottom-feeders to open up the postseason.

Look at this way also. if you lose the bet then hopefully you’ll mentally brace yourself for losing some money over the course of 3-4 months. If you win the bet and net a positive payout (and most futures bets will definitely pay out more than you initially wagered), then you’ll have some extra spending cash to spend on your summer vacation. It’s not like you’re going to do anything fun with that money right now anyways, it just hurts to go outside and spend more than 2 minutes out there.

So let’s break it down, here’s a few futures props I have my eye on as we head into NBA’s All-Star Weekend…

NBA Futures Wagers to Consider

 

OKC Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers NBA Finals Matchup+350

AND/OR

OKC Thunder vs. Miami Heat NBA Finals Matchup+350

There’s a couple different ways you could play this one, both of them dependent upon your belief that OKC will make it back to the NBA Finals for the second time in three years. Personally, I don’t see who is going to stop Kevin Durant in the Western Conference this season. His 31 points per game, 5.5 assists, and nearly 8 rebounds should be enough for Durantula to bring home his first league MVP trophy, regardless if Lebron James deserves another one or not. The voting will go Durant’s way after Lebron has taken the trophy in the past two seasons, just how the voting went in Derrick Rose’s favor 3 years ago. It’s similar to how we see a Republican voted into office after 2 consecutive terms of seeing a Democrat at the helm, or maybe this is the worst analogy I’ve ever tried to make. But either way, you get the point.

MVPs don’t mean much though if you can’t get your team to the promised land, just ask King James circa 2011. With that said though, I think Kevin Durant is playing with an assertiveness and aggression that we haven’t seen from him up until now. Maybe the early exit from last year’s playoffs after Russell Westbrookwent down to injury got Durant angry and even more motivated. A lot of skeptics said that Durant simply couldn’t get it done without an accomplice such as Westbrook or James Harden, who was shockingly dealt from the team days before the 2012-13 season commenced.

Do I think OKC makes it through to the NBA Finals? Hell yea. San Antonio‘s window closed with Ray Allen hitting the miracle 3 in Game 6 last June and Golden State/Portland just seem a bit too unseasoned and out of sync on any given evening (how did the Sixers beat Portland this season by the way?). So I think the first portion of this wager is going to be carried through by the Thunder without much trouble. I’m definitely open to and would love to hear arguments for the LA Clippers and Houston Rockets though. But as of now, I just don’t see it.

As for the other half of the bet, I hate to use the “L” word, but it’s pretty much a lock that the Indiana Pacers or Miami Heat will be representing the Eastern Conference in the 2014 NBA Finals. There simply aren’t any other teams in the East that can give the Heat or Pacers a run over a 7 game series. Hell, I don’t think any other teams are going to push Miami or Indy to a Game 6. Toronto, Atlanta, Brooklyn, and the Knicks are all two to three notches below these two other elite teams. It’s a very top-heavy NBA these days.

I think Heat/Pacers is going to go seven games in the Eastern Conference Finals, just as it did last year. And in the specific case of this bet, it won’t matter who wins Game 7. Throw $200 each on OKC/MIA and OKC/IND NBA Finals potential matchups at +350 each, and hit a $700 payday when the matchup is set in early June. You’ll have to deduct the other losing $200 wager of course, but making $500 profit is never a bad thing.

(*If you’re suffering from cabin fever and feeling really risky/confident about OKC making it to the NBA Finals….drop $500 each on these Finals Matchups bets and came out with a $1,750 winning ticket — $1,250 net profit when factoring in the other $500 losing wager).

 

Miami Heat to Win the NBA FINALS:  +200

I’ll admit, I’m sort of a Miami Heat lover, own an EL Heat tee-shirt and am looking to purchase a black EL HEAT Lebron Jamesjersey for me to rock out by the pool bar when I go to Las Vegas next month for the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. I think I look cool rocking Miami Heat attire and I’m not sure why, because in all reality I look like an idiot. Family members have even informed me of this. Oh well.

In any case, I think my love for Lebron and the Heat just stems from the fact that I truly enjoy watching greatness play out in front of me. I loved watching Michael Jordan play back in the 90s when I was still a kid. I love Brady/Manning matchups because there’s a good chance in ten years we’ll be yearning for those “Good Ole QB Days” the NFL had to offer in the early 2000s. I loved watching the Phillies stack aces and march to 97 and 102-win seasons a few years back. Regardless if they went on to win a World Series or not (they didn’t in 2010 or 2011), they were great pitching rotations and in turn fantastic MLB ball clubs.

So from the same standpoint, I love watching Lebron James and the Miami Heat compete come May and June. They’ve made it to three consecutive NBA Finals and are favored (by a very small margin over Indiana) to make it a fourth.  It certainly won’t be easy for Miami, but none of their previous three runs into the NBA Finals really have been either.

What we all do know for a fact though, is that King James absolutely will take over a game and impose his dominance on a playoff game when he has to. Two perfect examples: Game 6 at Boston in the 2012 ECF and Game 6 against the Spurs in the 2013 NBA Finals.

I think we’re going to see a couple more similar performances from Lebron in the 2014 NBA Playoffs, but the question is will it be enough for Miami to 3-Peat? I’m saying YES it will be, as we’re all witnessing what is quite possibly (I’d argue probably) the best basketball player ever in his absolute prime down in Miami.

It’s a risky wager, as all are, but I’d rather have my money in the hands of Lebron James in this stage of his career at +200 to win the title than Paul George of the Pacers at +240. Give it some thought this weekend as you’re tirelessly searching for something to watch on TV besides bobsledding and All-Star skills competitions where Chris Paul passes a basketball through something that resembles a hula-hoop.

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